Macro Indicator
Is the yield curve inverted?
The US Treasury yield curve is the market's clearest recession barometer. Right now it is normal.
Updated 2026-08-11 · source: US Treasury
The yield curve plots US Treasury interest rates from 3 months to 30 years. Normally longer bonds pay more (an upward slope). When short-term yields rise above long-term yields, the curve "inverts" — a sign the market expects rate cuts, usually because a slowdown is coming.
The 3-month/10-year spread is the version the Fed's own research favours as a recession predictor. FinBrio tracks it live with a full year of history, so you can see not just today's reading but the trend into it.
FAQ
Is the yield curve inverted right now?
No — the US yield curve is currently normal. The 3-month yield is 3.73% and the 10-year is 4.703%, a spread of +0.97%. The curve inverts when short-term rates rise above long-term rates — historically a recession warning.
What is the 3-month/10-year spread?
The 3M/10Y spread is the 10-year Treasury yield minus the 3-month yield — currently +0.97%. It's the spread the Federal Reserve watches most closely as a recession signal; a negative value means the curve is inverted.
Why does an inverted yield curve matter?
An inversion means investors expect the Fed to cut rates in the future — usually because they see a slowdown coming. It has preceded nearly every US recession in modern history, though the lag between inversion and recession varies widely.
Track the yield curve — and what it means — live
FinBrio charts the full curve with a year of inversion history, plus the stress meter and crisis playbook that put it in context. Free on iOS and the web.